How We Calculate Safety Scores
Overview
We aggregate data from 9 trusted public sources to compute a composite safety score (1-10) for every country. Higher scores indicate safer destinations. Our tiered architecture blends annual baseline indices (~70% weight) with near-realtime signal sources (up to 30% weight) so that scores reflect both long-term stability and emerging crises. The score combines five categories: Conflict (30%), Crime (25%), Health (20%), Governance (15%), and Environment (10%).
Data Sources
| Source | What It Measures | Update Frequency | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators | Measures governance quality across six dimensions for 200+ countries, including political stability, rule of law, government effectiveness, and corruption control. | Annual | Visit |
| Global Peace Index (IEP) | Measures peacefulness across 163 countries using 23 indicators. | Annual | Visit |
| INFORM Risk Index (UN OCHA) | Assesses humanitarian crisis and disaster risk across multiple dimensions. | Quarterly | Visit |
| Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) | Tracks political violence and protest events worldwide in near real-time. | Weekly | Visit |
| US State Department Travel Advisories | Official US government travel safety ratings (Levels 1-4). | Varies | Visit |
| UK FCDO Travel Advice | Official UK government travel safety guidance. | Varies | Visit |
| Government of Canada | Travel advisory level for Canadian citizens | Varies | Visit |
| Australian Government | Travel advisory level from Smartraveller | Varies | Visit |
| ReliefWeb (UN OCHA) | Tracks active humanitarian disasters and crises worldwide. | Daily | Visit |
| GDACS (Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) | Provides near-realtime alerts for natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, cyclones, and volcanic eruptions. | Daily | Visit |
| GDELT Project | Monitors global media to derive a country-level instability signal from news tone analysis. | Daily | Visit |
| WHO Disease Outbreak News | Tracks active disease outbreaks reported by the World Health Organization. | Weekly | Visit |
Scoring Formula
Raw indicator values are normalized to a 0-1 scale (higher = safer). Within each pillar, indicators have explicit sub-weights. The formula blends baseline sources (~70%) with realtime signal sources (up to ~30%, scaled by data freshness via exponential decay). Stale data contributes less weight automatically. The final composite score is the weighted pillar sum mapped to a 1-10 scale.
Baseline + Signal Architecture
Baseline sources (World Bank, INFORM, GPI) are updated annually and provide a stable foundation for scoring. Signal sources (ACLED, GDELT, ReliefWeb, GDACS, WHO DONs, government advisories) update daily or weekly and capture emerging crises such as armed conflicts, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. Signal source influence is capped at 30% of the total score, ensuring that volatile short-term data cannot dominate long-term structural indicators.
Data Freshness Decay
Each data source has a configured half-life for freshness decay. If a source's data is one half-life old, it contributes 50% of its full weight; at two half-lives, 25%; and so on. Beyond the configured maximum age, stale data is dropped entirely. This ensures scores always reflect the most current available information while gracefully degrading when sources are temporarily unavailable.
How INFORM Enriches the Scoring
The INFORM Risk Index, published by the European Commission Joint Research Centre and UN OCHA, provides granular sub-indices for natural hazards, epidemic risk, health conditions, governance fragility, and climate/flood exposure. These indicators complement World Bank governance data by adding hazard-specific dimensions that are especially relevant to travelers.
Global Peace Index
The Global Peace Index (GPI) from the Institute for Economics and Peace is integrated into the Conflict pillar. GPI indicators (overall score, safety & security, militarisation) provide a comprehensive picture of peacefulness based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators across 163 countries.
Category Weights
Categories are weighted to reflect their relative importance to traveler safety. Conflict carries the highest weight (30%) because active conflicts pose the most immediate and severe risk. Crime contributes 25%, as it directly affects personal safety day-to-day. Health (20%) remains important but is often manageable with precautions. Governance (15%) captures institutional stability as an indirect factor. Environment (10%) reflects natural and climate hazards that, while relevant, tend to be more localized or seasonal.
| Category | Weight | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict | 30% | World Bank Political Stability Index, Global Peace Index - Overall Score, GPI Safety & Security Score, GPI Militarisation Score, Armed Conflict Fatalities (ACLED), Armed Conflict Events (ACLED), GDELT Media Instability Index, US State Department Advisory Level, UK FCDO Advisory Level, Government of Canada Advisory Level, Australian Government Advisory Level |
| Crime | 25% | World Bank Rule of Law Index |
| Health | 20% | World Bank Child Mortality Rate, INFORM Health Risk Index, INFORM Epidemic Risk Index, WHO Active Disease Outbreaks |
| Governance | 15% | World Bank Government Effectiveness, World Bank Control of Corruption, INFORM Governance Index |
| Environment | 10% | World Bank Air Pollution (PM2.5), INFORM Natural Hazard Risk, INFORM Climate Risk, ReliefWeb Active Humanitarian Disasters, GDACS Natural Disaster Alerts |
Understanding Each Category
Click on each category below to learn what it measures and how to interpret scores.
Conflict (30%)
Measures armed conflict intensity, political stability, militarization levels, and government travel advisory warnings. This category carries the highest weight because active conflicts and government warnings pose the most immediate and severe risk to travelers. Includes the GDELT media instability signal for near-realtime crisis detection and advisory levels from four governments (US, UK, Canada, Australia).
Data Sources: World Bank Political Stability Index, Global Peace Index scores, ACLED conflict events and fatalities, GDELT Media Instability Index, US State Department advisory level, UK FCDO advisory level, Government of Canada advisory level, Australian Government advisory level.
Active or recent armed conflict, political instability, high militarization. Travelers face elevated physical security risks.
Peaceful and politically stable, low conflict risk and minimal militarization. Generally safe from conflict-related threats.
Crime (25%)
Measures the strength of rule of law and legal protections. A strong rule of law means effective legal protections and law enforcement for residents and visitors alike.
Data Sources: World Bank Rule of Law Index.
Weak rule of law with limited legal recourse. Higher risk of crime and limited protections for travelers.
Strong legal protections and effective law enforcement. Travelers benefit from low crime rates and robust legal systems.
Health (20%)
Measures healthcare system quality and epidemic or disease risk. Access to reliable healthcare and low disease prevalence are critical factors for traveler safety. Includes WHO Disease Outbreak News for near-realtime outbreak tracking.
Data Sources: World Bank child mortality rate (proxy for healthcare quality), INFORM Health Risk Index, INFORM Epidemic Risk Index, WHO Active Disease Outbreaks.
Limited healthcare access, elevated disease or epidemic risk. Travelers may face challenges obtaining medical care.
Strong healthcare infrastructure, low epidemic risk. Quality medical care is accessible and disease risks are minimal.
Governance (15%)
Measures institutional effectiveness and corruption levels. Well-governed countries provide more predictable and safer environments for travelers through reliable public services and transparent institutions.
Data Sources: World Bank Government Effectiveness, World Bank Control of Corruption, INFORM Governance Index.
Weak institutions, high corruption, governance fragility. Travelers may encounter unreliable public services and bureaucratic challenges.
Effective, transparent government institutions. Public services are reliable and corruption is well controlled.
Environment (10%)
Measures natural hazard exposure and environmental health risks. While often seasonal or localized, natural disasters and poor air quality can significantly impact travel safety. Includes ReliefWeb humanitarian disasters and GDACS natural disaster alerts for near-realtime monitoring.
Data Sources: World Bank Air Pollution (PM2.5), INFORM Natural Hazard Risk Index, INFORM Climate Risk Index, ReliefWeb Active Humanitarian Disasters, GDACS Natural Disaster Alerts.
High exposure to natural disasters, severe air pollution, climate-related hazards. Travelers should monitor weather and environmental conditions closely.
Low natural hazard risk, good air quality. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for travelers.
Limitations and Caveats
Our scores are based on publicly available data that may be delayed, incomplete, or not granular enough to capture regional differences within a country. Scores should be used as a general guide, not as definitive safety assessments. Always consult your government's official travel advisories before making travel decisions.